The FIFA World Cup is a unique event in the world of betting. Every four years, it attracts millions of players, from professionals to beginners who are opening a betting account for the first time. The main dilemma faced by every bettor during the World Cup is whether to bet on the favorite or try to guess a sensation by the underdog? In this article, we will discuss the key features of betting on top teams and outright underdogs, and assess the real chances of both for success.
The World Cup is a special tournament for betting
Club football offers a wealth of statistics, familiar lineups, and well-practiced schemes. A bettor can analyze a team's form over the last 10–20 matches, assess head-to-head encounters, schedule, and injuries. The World Cup, however, is a completely different reality.
National teams play only 3–7 matches in the tournament. This is an extremely short distance. Here, one bad day can negate years of preparation. Players don't have time to warm up, and the psychological pressure increases manifold, as they are defending the honor of an entire country.
This unpredictability is what makes the World Cup so appealing for betting. On one hand, the favorites seem like a reliable choice. On the other hand, history is full of examples where undeniable leaders exited the tournament already in the group stage or suffered crushing defeats from modest opponents.
Betting on Favorites: The Illusion of Reliability
In every World Cup, bookmakers highlight 2–4 main title contenders. These are teams with the most expensive rosters, star players, and winning traditions. At the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, these were Brazil, France, Argentina, and England. The list for the upcoming tournament might look similar.
Advantages of Betting on Favorites
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High probability of advancing. Favorites rarely exit the group stage. In the last 20 years, only a few from the top-4 have left the tournament before the playoffs.
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Understandable play. Top teams dominate, control the ball, and create many chances. Bets on their victory or total over often win.
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Squad depth. Favorites have a quality bench. Even the injury of a leader isn't catastrophic (example: France without Benzema reached the final in the 2022 World Cup).
Disadvantages and Risks
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Low odds. A favorite's victory over a clear underdog might be valued at 1.10–1.20. To get a significant win, one has to risk large sums.
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Reduced motivation in some matches. If a favorite has already secured advancement from the group, they might field a second lineup. This increases the risk of a draw or even a loss.
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Overestimation by bookmakers. Sometimes public opinion and media inflate the status of a favorite. On paper, the team seems invincible, but on the field, they face the tactical flexibility of the opponent (recall Spain in 2014, losing to the Netherlands 1:5 and Chile 0:2).
Example of a Successful Bet on a Favorite
World Cup 2018. France vs. Argentina (round of 16). The odds for a victory of "Les Bleus" before the tournament were around 1.85–2.00. Deschamps' team had a more balanced lineup. The bet paid off — 4:3, though the match was tense.
Example of a Failure
World Cup 2014. Brazil vs. Germany (semifinal). The odds for a victory of the hosts were around 2.60, for Germany — 2.75. Those who bet on the favorite in Brazil lost. And they lost not just, but with a thrashing 1:7.
Conclusion: You can bet on favorites, but it's better to do so through combined markets (victory + total, victory + both teams to score) or in accumulators. It's not wise to invest the entire bank in low odds.
Betting on Underdogs: Hunting for a Sensation
Underdogs are teams that bookmakers evaluate with odds from 3.50–4.00 and higher. Often these are national teams making their first appearance at the World Cup or representatives of the "second tier" of footballing nations.
Why Consider Betting on Underdogs?
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High odds. Even a small bet on an underdog yields a large profit if a sensation happens.
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Underestimation by bookmakers. Bookmakers focus on ratings, squad value, and history. But in a short tournament, character and dedication often outweigh class. Underdogs enter the match with extreme motivation and aren't afraid to play on the counter.
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Tactical flexibility. An underdog has nothing to lose. They can close in defense and counterattack. For a favorite, breaking such a "bus" can be extremely difficult.
Main Risks
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Unpredictability. Sensations happen rarely. On average, there are 1–2 major upsets of favorites in a tournament. The rest of the matches end as expected.
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Thrashings. When an underdog is forced to open up, the favorite might execute a "classic run" with a score of 5:0 or 6:0. A bet on a positive handicap for the underdog sometimes loses before halftime.
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Emotional downturn. After a historic victory (e.g., Saudi Arabia over Argentina), underdogs often lose concentration in subsequent matches.
Legendary Sensations in Betting on Underdogs
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World Cup 1950, USA vs. England (1:0). The odds for a USA victory were over 10.00. The English were considered unbeatable but lost to a team that included a dishwasher and an undertaker.
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World Cup 2002, Senegal vs. France (1:0). The odds for the tournament debutant were about 7.00–8.00. The reigning world and European champions with Zidane, Henry, Vieira couldn't do anything.
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World Cup 2022, Saudi Arabia vs. Argentina (2:1). The odds for a Saudi victory reached 15.00–17.00. Argentina came to the tournament with a 36-match unbeaten streak and was considered the main favorite. The result — one of the biggest upsets in sports history.
How to Bet on Underdogs Wisely?
Instead of a direct bet on a victory (which happens rarely), professionals use:
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Handicap (+1.5) or (+2.0). An underdog might lose but not by a big margin. The odds remain attractive (1.80–2.50).
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Total less (2.0) or (2.5). Underdogs play defensively, so low-scoring matches are their profile.
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Both teams to score — no. Very often, the underdog doesn't score against the favorite at all.
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Draw in a match favorite — underdog. Especially in the group stage, where sometimes a point is enough for the favorite.
How to Analyze the Balance of Power in the World Cup?
When preparing to bet on favorites and underdogs, consider the following factors:
1. Motivation and Tournament Position
In the group stage, there are "dead" matches where one of the opponents has nothing to play for. A favorite, having secured advancement, might play at half strength. An underdog fighting for a historic playoff spot will give their best match ever.
2. Opponent's Playing Style
Some favorites don't like playing against a low block (Germany in recent years, Spain with its tiki-taka without a sharp striker). Others, on the contrary, break through a saturated defense well with flanks and set-pieces.
3. Climate, Match Time, Physical Condition
In World Cups held in hot countries (Qatar-2022), the match schedule and squad rotation were of great importance. Favorites with aging players might falter in the second half. Underdogs with young and enduring players gained an advantage.
4. Scandals and Media Pressure
Any news about discord in the favorite's camp spreads worldwide instantly. This affects not only the fans' mood but also bookmaker lines. Sometimes it's worth playing against public opinion.
World Cup Betting Strategies
Strategy "Catch the Moment"
If a favorite is on a roll and playing brightly, you can bet on their victory in subsequent matches until the odds drop. In the group stage, top teams often don't play at full strength — there it's risky to stake large sums. But in the playoffs, bets on favorites become more reliable.
Strategy "Against the Hype"
Sometimes a favorite looks convincing only on paper. If you see that the team is struggling in attack, making defensive errors, but the bookmaker still offers odds of 1.40, it makes sense to play against them on the distance — bets on X2 (the underdog won't lose) or on the underdog's handicap.
Strategy "Sensation with a Safety Net"
Choose 2–3 matches in the group stage where a sensation is potentially possible. Bet a small percentage of the bank (1–2%) on a pure victory of the underdog with huge odds. If at least one of these combinations wins, you cover all losses and come out ahead.
Conclusion on World Cup Betting
Betting on World Cup favorites and underdogs is an art of balance. Favorites give a sense of stability, but low odds and unexpected failures make them not as reliable as they seem. Underdogs promise fabulous winnings, but sensations happen rarely, and chasing each one is a path to draining the bank.
The main advice for a bettor at the World Cup: don't fall in love with star names. Analyze form, motivation, playing style, and the specific match. Use combined markets and bets with a safety net (handicap, total). And remember — anything is possible in this tournament. That's exactly why we love the World Cup for its unpredictability.
Happy betting and may the sensations work for you, not against you.