The 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico promises to be the most unpredictable in history. For the first time, 48 teams will compete in the final stage, instead of 32. The new format (16 groups of 3 teams, followed by playoffs starting from the round of 32) opens the door to tactical chaos: every mistake or chance event could push a team into the knockout stage that, on paper, didn't even deserve second place.
Experts are traditionally betting on the giants: France, Argentina, Brazil, England. But every World Cup is full of surprises. Remember: Cameroon-1990, Senegal-2002, Costa Rica-2014, Morocco-2022. In 2026, there are even more potential "giant killers."
We have selected five national teams that, with favorable circumstances, will not only advance from the group but will go further than expected — to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and even beyond. Their success will knock out one or two favorites and completely shake up the tournament bracket.
1. Senegal: an African nightmare for France and Portugal
Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway
PREDICTIONS FOR WC 2026 — GROUP I
On paper, the first place is unquestionably given to France — the World Cup runners-up with Mbappé and Griezmann. For second place, most believe it's between Norway (Haaland, Ødegaard) and Senegal. However, Norway is often placed higher due to its star pair. This is a mistake.
Why Senegal will go further than expected
Senegal has the championship core of Africa Cup winners. Edouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly, Idrissa Gueye, Sadio Mané — these are players who are not afraid of big names and know how to endure. Against France, Senegal will play defensively and take a draw. Norway, with respect to Haaland, does not know how to break down organized defenses — Senegal will outrun and outmuscle them in midfield. Iraq — three points without question.
Group result: France — 7 points, Senegal — 5 points, Norway — 4 points, Iraq — 0. Senegal advances in second place.
How the bracket will change
In the round of 32, the second place from Group I faces the second place from Group E or F. Most likely, this will be Ecuador, Japan, or Switzerland — a beatable opponent. However, in the round of 16, Senegal will face the winner of a pairing that will almost certainly include Portugal.
Portugal by 2026 is a 40-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo and a defense that can be stretched by fast wings. Senegal will beat Portugal on the counterattack (1-0 or 2-1). In the quarterfinals, they will likely lose to one of the top teams, but by that point, they will have managed to knock out two European giants: first France (denying them first place in the group), and then Portugal in the playoffs.
What this means for the bracket: the top half of the tournament bracket loses one of the main favorites already in the round of 16. The path to the semifinals opens for a team at the level of Morocco or the USA.
2. Morocco: a second consecutive quarterfinal
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
PREDICTIONS FOR WC 2026 — GROUP C
Brazil is the absolute favorite. But Morocco, after its historic semifinal in Qatar, is no longer considered an easy target. The problem is elsewhere: the main battle for second place will not be with Brazil, but with Scotland, which in recent years has become very inconvenient for top teams (remember the victory over Spain in the Euro qualifiers).
Why Morocco will advance
Morocco has retained its main asset — discipline and team defense. At the same time, they have fresh blood from the Mohammed VI Academy. Against Scotland, the Moroccans will play tightly and use set-pieces. Haiti is an easy prey. Brazil will likely win, but Morocco will take a draw or lose narrowly.
Group: Brazil — 9 points, Morocco — 4 points (victory over Haiti, draw with Scotland), Scotland — 4 points, Haiti — 0. Morocco advances due to a better goal difference.
Impact on the bracket
The second place in Group C faces the winner of Group F in the round of 32. And there — the Netherlands. Is this a rematch of the 2022 quarterfinal? No, the Netherlands by 2026 have lost their luster (Van Dijk is aging, De Jong is injury-prone). Morocco will beat them.
In the round of 16 — the winner of a pair from Groups E and G. Most likely, Germany. The Germans do not like playing against highly disciplined teams that relinquish possession. Morocco takes the match to penalties and wins. Advancing to the quarterfinals repeats the success of 2022.
What this means for the bracket: in this quarter, the Netherlands and Germany — two European machines — are knocked out. Either Morocco or Brazil will advance to the semifinals, by which time Brazil may have lost some of its leaders to injury.
3. USA: a home semifinal is not fantasy
Group D: USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey
PREDICTIONS FOR WC 2026 — GROUP D
For the tournament hosts, the group is very convenient. There are no giants. Turkey is unstable, Australia is a workhorse without stars, Paraguay is a solid middle team. The USA must advance in first place. The sensation is not in advancing from the group, but in how far they will go in the bracket.
Why the USA will change the bracket
The Americans play almost all their matches at home — Los Angeles, Atlanta, Kansas City, Seattle. 70–100 thousand spectators at each playoff match is a colossal advantage. By 2026, the squad has gained experience: Pulisic, Reyna, Balogun, Adams — these are no longer youngsters, but leaders of their clubs.
By winning Group D, in the round of 32, the USA faces one of the best third-place teams (from Groups B, E, F, I, or J). Most likely, this will be Qatar, Bosnia, or Curacao — a beatable opponent.
In the round of 16, they will face the winner of the match between the second place of Group C (Morocco or Scotland) and the winner of Group B (Canada or Switzerland). This is not top-level competition. The USA reaches the quarterfinals without facing anyone from the "Big Five."
In the quarterfinals, Brazil or Germany are possible, but by then the Americans will have caught momentum, and the favorites will be worn out by the tournament. A home World Cup has always produced surprises (remember South Korea-2002).
The USA's advance to the semifinals is not fantasy. And this completely overturns the bracket: the tournament hosts become title contenders, and European giants get an additional monster.
4. Norway: time for Haaland and Ødegaard
Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway
PREDICTIONS FOR WC 2026 — GROUP I
For the first time in many years, Norway is at a major tournament. They have Erling Haaland, the world's top scorer, and Martin Ødegaard, the attacking brain of Arsenal. This pair is capable of beating any opponent in a single match.
Why this is a surprise
Most predictions give second place to Senegal, forgetting about the star power of the Norwegians. Norway does not know how to play defensively, but in a group with France, they don't need to. They need to beat Iraq (mandatory) and challenge Senegal in their head-to-head match.
Key game: Norway vs. Senegal. This is the battle for second place. In it, Haaland will use his main asset — space behind the defenders. Senegal will be forced to attack, and the Norwegians will catch them on the counterattack.
Group result: France — 7 points, Norway — 4 points (victory over Iraq and draw with Senegal), Senegal — 4 points, Iraq — 0. Norway advances based on head-to-head or goal difference.
How the bracket will change
From second place, Norway in the round of 32 faces the winner of Group E or F. Most likely, this is Germany or the Netherlands. And here, Haaland can make history. The Norwegians are an unstable team, but in a knockout match against a giant that will attack with great force, Haaland gets space.
Scenario: Norway beats Germany in the round of 32 with a score of 2-1 — Haaland double. In the round of 16, they face the winner of a pair from Groups G and H (for example, Sweden or Colombia). This is also passable. In the quarterfinals, Norway loses, but by then, they will have eliminated one of the top favorites.
What this means for the bracket: Germany is knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. An entire quarter of the bracket is cleared for a team at the level of the USA or Morocco to reach the semifinals.
5. Ghana: heirs of the golden generation against England
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
PREDICTIONS FOR WC 2026 — GROUP L
At first glance — a group for England and aging Croatia. But Ghana is the most inconvenient opponent for European giants. Remember 2010: that infamous Suarez handball at the last minute of the quarterfinal that denied Ghana the first African semifinal in history. In 2022, they beat South Korea and nearly passed Portugal.
Why Ghana is a dark horse
Ghana has athletic midfielders (Mohammed Kudus, Kamaldeen Sulemana) who grind down the midfield. Against the slow Croatians and English, who love to build up attacks, this is a key advantage. Panama means guaranteed three points. Croatia by 2026 will be completely aged (Modric 40, Perisic 37, Kovacic 32). Ghana takes points from them.
Group: England — 7 points, Ghana — 5 points (victory over Panama, victory over Croatia, draw with England), Croatia — 4 points, Panama — 0. Ghana advances in second place or even first if England stumbles.
Bracket-breaking scenario
In the round of 32, Ghana faces the second place of Group K. There — Colombia, Portugal, or Uzbekistan. Ghana beats Colombia with physicality.
And in the round of 16, a possible rematch with England. The English will be nervous: they remember how the Ghanaians have already beaten them in youth tournaments and how close they were to historic success in 2010. Ghana plays without fear. Result — a sensational victory and advance to the quarterfinals.
What this means for the bracket: England — one of the bookmakers' main favorites — is knocked out in the round of 16. In this quarter of the bracket, only middle-tier teams remain (winners from Groups I, J, K). This opens the road to the semifinals for a completely unexpected team — perhaps even Ghana.
Conclusion: How the 2026 World Cup playoff bracket will change
By the round of 16, the tournament bracket will likely lose three to four giants. Here are specific scenarios:
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Portugal will be knocked out in the round of 16 by Senegal.
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The Netherlands will be knocked out in the round of 32 by Morocco.
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Germany will be knocked out in the round of 32 or round of 16 by Norway.
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England will be knocked out in the round of 16 by Ghana.
The upper half of the bracket remains without European domination. The lower half gets two African teams in the quarterfinals (Senegal and Ghana). The tournament hosts (USA) advance to at least the semifinals.
The 2026 World Cup, due to its format with 48 teams and eight third-place teams advancing, is bound for surprises. The favorites will have to play at full stretch from the first matches, while the underdogs — Senegal, Morocco, the USA, Norway, and Ghana — have the perfect combinations: experience, stars, tactical flexibility, and in the case of the USA, home support.
The playoff bracket will be unrecognizable by the round of 32. And this will make the 2026 World Cup the most unpredictable in history.